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The Prop Bettor's Edge
A Proven Strategy to Find Market Inefficiencies, Master the Odds, and Beat the Sportsbooks
By John “Statsational” Alesia
Why This Book Exists
Most sports betting content is built on gut feelings, recency bias, and “trust me bro” picks. This book is different. It's built on the same quantitative frameworks used on Wall Street trading desks.
Statistical Models
Poisson, Normal, Negative Binomial, Zero-Inflated Poisson, and Hurdle models explained with real betting examples.
Edge Identification
Learn to find the gap between the sportsbook's price and the true probability. That gap is your edge.
Risk Management
Kelly Criterion, bankroll management, variance control, and the institutional risk frameworks that keep you in the game.
What's Inside the Book
Part 1: Foundations
Beginner- Why Props Are Beatable
- Prop Betting Fundamentals
- Types of Prop Bets Across Sports
- Basic Probability and Expected Value
- Bankroll Management
Part 2: Statistical Foundations
Intermediate- Variance and Standard Deviation
- The Normal Distribution
- The Poisson Distribution
- The Negative Binomial Distribution
- Selecting the Right Distribution
Part 3: Practical Applications
Advanced- Correlation, Covariance & SGPs
- Closing Line Value and Line Movement
- Line Shopping
- Live Betting Props
18 Free Calculator Tools
Every model and formula from the book has a companion calculator on this platform. Free forever.
Explore ToolsBook + Platform = Your Edge
The book teaches the theory. The platform gives you the tools. Together, they give you the edge.
The Book
- Deep-dive explanations of every concept
- Real-world betting examples and case studies
- Step-by-step statistical model walkthroughs
- Professional bettor insights and stories
- Read anywhere, anytime
The Platform
- 91 interactive lessons with exercises
- 18 professional calculator tools
- 137-term glossary and formula reference
- Progress tracking across all chapters
- Free forever, updated regularly
Ready to Find Your Edge?
Stop guessing. Start pricing. Get the complete framework for turning prop bets into a tradeable market.