Back to Concepts

Implied Probability

Implied probability converts betting odds into a percentage that represents the likelihood of an outcome according to the market.

For American odds: - Negative odds: Implied % = |Odds| / (|Odds| + 100) - Positive odds: Implied % = 100 / (Odds + 100)

Example: -150 odds imply 60% probability (150/250). +200 odds imply 33.3% probability (100/300).

Note that implied probabilities from a sportsbook include the vig, so they'll add up to more than 100%. To find "true" probabilities, you need to remove the vig (normalize to 100%).