Back to Library
Prop Market Scorecard
From The Prop Bettor's Edge, Chapter 3. Every prop market rated on four dimensions with edge triggers for each.
Rating Dimensions (1-5)
SSoftness (mispricing frequency)
TStability (repeatability)
MModelability (estimation clarity)
EExecution (practical betting)
Market Tags
Core · Best hunting groundSituational · Only with edge triggerAvoid (except) · Concrete reason onlyAvoid · Entertainment only
8 Core4 Situational4 Avoid (except)
| Market | S | T | M | E | Score | Tag | Edge Trigger |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB Completions O/U | 2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 75 | Core | Attempts projection edge (script/tempo) + scheme / aDOT shift |
| QB Pass Attempts O/U | 2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 72 | Core | Spread-driven script + pass rate over expected |
| QB Passing Yards O/U | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 69 | Core | Late weather/news; tempo mismatch; attempts edge |
| QB Rush Attempts O/U | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 70 | Core | Designed-run role change; injury limits; must-run script |
| QB Rush Yards O/U | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 63 | Situational | Scramble environment + role change |
| QB INTs O/U | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 57 | Situational | High dropbacks + pressure/coverage mismatch |
| RB Rush Attempts O/U | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 79 | Core | Depth chart news; coach usage trend; favored script |
| RB Rushing Yards O/U | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 69 | Core | Workload (carries) edge more than matchup vibes |
| RB Receptions O/U | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 73 | Core | Negative script + route rate spike |
| RB Receiving Yards O/U | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 63 | Situational | Pass-game role change + shallow targets |
| WR/TE Receptions O/U | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 76 | Core | Route participation/slot move; teammate injury reallocates targets |
| WR/TE Receiving Yards O/U | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 63 | Situational | Target share thesis + coverage/scheme mismatch |
| WR/TE Longest Reception | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 50 | Avoid (except) | Clear deep role + secondary injury + misprice |
| Anytime TD (Yes) | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 37 | Avoid (except) | Goal-line role change or obvious price error |
| First TD | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 37 | Avoid (except) | Promo/boost or glaring misprice only |
| Passing TDs O/U | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 40 | Avoid (except) | Red-zone pass rate anomaly + team total mismatch |
How to read this scorecard: Markets with higher Overall Scores have the best combination of soft pricing, stable outcomes, modelable inputs, and practical execution. Focus on Core markets first, then add Situational plays when edge triggers are present.
This scorecard is a starting point, not a finish line. Markets evolve, books adjust, and edges shift. Revisit quarterly to reassess where your edge still exists.
Want to learn how to exploit these markets?
The full course covers 91 lessons on probability, distribution modeling, and the institutional frameworks behind this scorecard.