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Chapter 8 · Statistical FoundationsIntermediate
The Poisson Distribution
Model count-based props like touchdowns, strikeouts, and goals.
7 lessons~45 minIncludes exercisesInteractive calculators
Lessons
Introduction to PoissonModeling rare, discrete events
Poisson Model AssumptionsWhen and why the Poisson model applies
Poisson Properties and ShortcutsKey properties and calculation shortcuts
Calculator
The Three-Step Betting ProcessA systematic approach to Poisson-based betting
Calculator
Worked ExamplesPricing real prop bets with Poisson
When Poisson Breaks DownOverdispersion and when to use alternatives
Exercises and PracticeBuild and use a Poisson calculator
ExerciseCalculator