Negative Binomial Calculator
Handle overdispersed data and boom-or-bust players
Lower r = more variance
Shows the worst odds you should accept to maintain this edge
Quick presets:
Understanding Negative Binomial
The negative binomial distribution extends Poisson by adding a dispersion parameter (r) to handle data where the variance exceeds the mean (overdispersion).
VMR = variance / mean (if VMR > 1, data is overdispersed)
Best for: Boom-or-bust players, stats with high game-to-game variance, any count data where Poisson underestimates extreme outcomes.
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