Poisson Distribution Calculator
Model count-based props like touchdowns, strikeouts, and goals
Your projected average
The over/under line
Shows the worst odds you should accept to maintain this edge
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Understanding Poisson Distribution
The Poisson distribution models the probability of a given number of discrete events occurring. It's ideal for props like touchdowns, strikeouts, goals, and assists.
P(X = k) = (lambda^k x e^(-lambda)) / k!
Lambda is the expected average count. If a pitcher averages 6.5 strikeouts per game, lambda = 6.5.
Excel: =POISSON.DIST(k, lambda, FALSE) for exact, TRUE for cumulative.
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