Expected Value (EV)

Expected Value (EV) is arguably the most important concept in sports betting. It represents the average amount you expect to win or lose per bet if you made the same bet thousands of times.

Formula: EV = (Probability × Profit) - ((1 - Probability) × Stake)

A positive EV (+EV) bet means you expect to profit over time. A negative EV (-EV) bet means you expect to lose.

Professional bettors focus entirely on finding +EV bets, knowing that short-term results will vary but long-term profits will follow if their probability estimates are accurate.