Variance

Variance refers to the natural fluctuation in results that differs from your expected value. Even with a proven edge, you'll experience winning and losing streaks.

Key points about variance: - Short-term results are mostly noise - Sample size matters: need 500+ bets to assess true skill - Higher odds = higher variance - Proper bankroll management helps survive negative variance

Understanding variance prevents overreaction to short-term results. A losing week doesn't mean your strategy is wrong; a winning week doesn't mean you've found a golden system.