Calculating Closing Line Value
There are several ways to calculate CLV, ranging from simple to precise. The method you choose depends on the bet type and how much accuracy you need.
CLV Calculator
Try the interactive calculator for this concept
Method 1: Point Spread or Total (Simple)
For spreads and totals, the simplest method is to compare the number you got versus the closing number.
Example
| Your Bet | Closing Line | CLV |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis Over 10.5 rebounds (-110) | Over 11.5 rebounds (-110) | +1 rebound |
You gained 1 rebound of value. If Davis grabs 11 rebounds, you win your bet while anyone who bet the closing line loses.
Tip
This method works best when the price (odds) stays the same and only the number moves. It's quick and intuitive for spreads and totals.
Method 2: Implied Probability (More Precise)
For moneylines and props where the price changes significantly, comparing implied probabilities is more accurate.
Converting Odds to Implied Probability
Implied Probability (Negative Odds)
Implied Probability = |odds| ÷ (|odds| + 100)=ABS(A1)/(ABS(A1)+100)Implied Probability (Positive Odds)
Implied Probability = 100 ÷ (odds + 100)=100/(A1+100)Example Calculation
| Your Bet | Closing Line |
|---|---|
| Brunson Over 26.5 points at -120 | Over 26.5 points at -140 |
Convert to implied probability:
- Your bet: -120 = 120 ÷ 220 = 54.55% implied probability
- Closing line: -140 = 140 ÷ 240 = 58.33% implied probability
- CLV: +3.78%
You secured a price that implied a 54.55% chance of hitting, but the market closed at 58.33%. You captured 3.78% of value.
Key Insight
The implied probability method is essential when the number stays the same but the price changes. A move from -110 to -140 represents significant value—don't ignore it!
Method 3: No-Vig (Most Accurate)
The most precise method removes the sportsbook's vig (juice) from both your bet and the closing line, then compares the true implied probabilities.
This method is especially important when the vig changes between your bet and the closing line.
Example: Why Vig Matters
| Your Bet | Closing Line |
|---|---|
| Over 26.5 at -110 / Under at -110 | Over 26.5 at -125 / Under at +105 |
| Market vig: 4.76% | Market vig: 6.8% |
Simply comparing -110 to -125 understates your CLV because the closing line has higher vig. Removing the vig gives you the true market probability and a cleaner measure of your edge.
How to Remove Vig
Step 1: Calculate raw implied probabilities for both sides
Step 2: Sum them (total will be >100% due to vig)
Step 3: Divide each side's probability by the total to get true probabilities
No-Vig Probability
True Prob = Raw Implied Prob ÷ (Sum of Both Sides' Implied Prob)=A1/(A1+B1)Worked Example
Closing line: Over -125 / Under +105
| Side | Raw Implied Prob | Calculation |
|---|---|---|
| Over (-125) | 55.56% | 125 ÷ 225 |
| Under (+105) | 48.78% | 100 ÷ 205 |
| Total | 104.34% | (vig is 4.34%) |
No-vig probabilities:
- Over: 55.56% ÷ 104.34% = 53.25%
- Under: 48.78% ÷ 104.34% = 46.75%
CLV in Standardized "Cents"
Some professional bettors express CLV in standardized units called "cents" by converting to +100 odds equivalent.
CLV in Cents
CLV (cents) = ((1 ÷ Closing Implied Prob) - (1 ÷ Your Implied Prob)) × 100=((1/B1)-(1/A1))*100Example
Bet at -110 (0.5238 implied), closes at -125 (0.5556 implied):
CLV = ((1/0.5556) - (1/0.5238)) × 100 ≈ +7.6 cents
Tip
Which method should you use?
- Method 1 (Simple): Quick evaluation for spreads/totals when only the number moves
- Method 2 (Implied Prob): Standard method for most bets, especially when price moves
- Method 3 (No-Vig): Most accurate for tracking performance over hundreds of bets
Quick Reference: Implied Probability Table
| American Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
| -200 | 66.67% |
| -150 | 60.00% |
| -130 | 56.52% |
| -120 | 54.55% |
| -115 | 53.49% |
| -110 | 52.38% |
| -105 | 51.22% |
| +100 | 50.00% |
| +110 | 47.62% |
| +120 | 45.45% |
| +150 | 40.00% |
| +200 | 33.33% |
📝 Exercise
Instructions
Calculate the CLV for each scenario below.
You bet Lakers -5.5 (-110). The line closes at Lakers -7 (-110). What is your CLV in points?
You bet Tatum Over 26.5 points at -120. The line closes at -140. What is your CLV in percentage points?