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Chapter 4 · FoundationsBeginner
Basic Probability and Expected Value
Master the fundamental concepts that separate winning bettors from losing ones.
6 lessons~45 minIncludes exercisesInteractive calculators
Lessons
Introduction to ProbabilityThinking in terms of repeated outcomes
Understanding Expected ValueThe only metric that matters long-term
Converting Odds to Implied ProbabilityConverting American odds to break-even percentages
Calculator
Understanding Vig: The Sportsbook EdgeHow the vig affects your break-even win rate
Calculator
Win Rate vs ROIWhy a 60% win rate can still lose money
Putting It All TogetherCombining probability and EV concepts
ExerciseCalculator