Putting It All Together: EV in Practice

You now understand the fundamental concepts that separate winning bettors from losing ones:

• ✅ What probability means in betting
• ✅ How to convert odds to break-even percentages
• ✅ How to calculate Expected Value
• ✅ Why win rate and ROI are different
• ✅ How vig works against you

Now let's put it all together with a complete workflow and practical exercises.

The Complete EV Analysis Workflow

Every time you evaluate a bet, follow these steps:

Step 1: Convert Odds to Break-Even %

Step 2: Estimate Your Probability

Ask yourself: "If this exact situation played out 100 times, how many times would this outcome occur?"

Use:

• Historical data
• Your model's projection
• Contextual adjustments (injuries, weather, matchups)

Step 3: Calculate Your Edge

Edge = Your Probability - Break-Even Probability

• If Edge > 0: Potential +EV bet
• If Edge ≤ 0: Pass

Step 4: Calculate Expected Value

Step 5: Decide

• +EV with sufficient edge: Bet (size according to bankroll management)
• +EV with tiny edge: Consider passing (edge may not survive variance)
• -EV: Always pass

Real-World Example: Complete Analysis

Prop: Jayson Tatum Over 26.5 Points
Odds: -115
Your Model's Projection: 28.2 points (58% chance of going over)

Step 1: Break-Even

Break-even = 115 / (115 + 100) = 115 / 215 = 53.49%

Step 2: Your Estimate

Your model says 58% chance of Over.

Step 3: Edge

Edge = 58% - 53.49% = 4.51 percentage points

Step 4: EV Calculation

At -115: Risk $115 to win $100

EV = 0.58 × $100 - 0.42 × $115
EV = $58 - $48.30
EV = +$9.70 per $115 risked

ROI = $9.70 / $115 = 8.4%

Step 5: Decision

✅ Bet. This is a strong +EV opportunity with a 4.5+ percentage point edge and 8.4% ROI.

Quick Self-Check Quiz

Before moving on, make sure you can answer these instantly:

1. What is the break-even win rate at -110?
2. If your model says a prop hits 57% but the odds imply 53%, is it +EV?
3. Why is a 60% win rate on -200 favorites actually losing money?

Building Your EV Tracking System

Create a spreadsheet with these columns to track every bet:

Use the EV Calculator

Put your knowledge into practice:

Moving Forward

You now have the tools to think clearly about betting. You can look at a prop, calculate the break-even rate, estimate your probability, and decide whether it's +EV—all in about 30 seconds.

That's the skill that matters. Not picking winners. Not having hot streaks. But consistently identifying +EV bets and having the discipline to only bet those.