The Prop Quality Checklist
Before you evaluate a specific prop bet, you need a fast way to answer one question: Is this market worth your time?
The Prop Quality Checklist gives you a systematic framework for filtering out bad markets before you waste energy analyzing them.
Key Insight
The best bettors don't bet more—they eliminate bad categories quickly and concentrate on repeatable edges. The checklist is your first filter.
The Five-Question Framework
When scanning any prop market, run through these five questions:
1. Market Structure
Question: Is it a clean two-way market (Over/Under) or a specialty/one-way style market?
| Structure | Characteristics | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Two-Way | Over/Under with similar prices both sides | Lower vig, calculable hold, line-shoppable |
| Asymmetric Two-Way | Both sides listed but one heavily juiced | High vig on one side, use caution |
| One-Way | Only "Yes" offered, no "No" option | Hidden vig (20-40%+), situational only |
Tip
Default to two-way markets. One-way markets require overwhelming edge to overcome the hidden vig.
2. Liquidity
Question: Is this a headline market drawing sharp action, or a quieter market?
High Liquidity Markets:
- Star player props (Mahomes yards, LeBron points)
- Main sport, main stat categories
- Early-released lines with time for market correction
Low Liquidity Markets:
- Backup player props
- Secondary statistics
- Late-added or niche markets
Key Insight
Low liquidity isn't automatically good or bad. High-liquidity markets are more efficient but also more line-shoppable. Low-liquidity markets may have softer lines but also higher vig and lower limits.
3. Variance
Question: Is this outcome driven by steady volume or rare events?
| Variance Level | Examples | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Low | Team totals, passing yards, rebounds | More predictable, faster convergence to expected results |
| Medium | Receiving yards, strikeouts, shots on goal | Moderate swings, reasonable sample needed |
| High | Touchdowns, home runs, goals | Large swings, long-term thinking required |
| Extreme | First scorer, anytime TD | Massive variance, avoid unless overwhelming edge |
Variance Rule of Thumb: The higher the variance, the larger your edge needs to be, and the more bets you need to realize it.
4. Driver Clarity
Question: Can you point to the main inputs (minutes, targets, pitch count, ice time)?
Clear Drivers (Good):
- Minutes played → Points, rebounds, assists
- Target share → Receiving yards, receptions
- Pitch count → Strikeouts, outs recorded
- Ice time + PP time → Shots on goal
Unclear Drivers (Caution):
- "Big game feel" → Touchdowns
- "Hot streak" → Home runs
- "Due for regression" → First basket
Warning
If you can't articulate the specific inputs that drive an outcome, you're gambling on narrative rather than analysis. Stick to props with clear, trackable drivers.
5. Edge Source
Question: Is your advantage coming from modeling, information (injury/role), or pricing/promo?
| Edge Source | Examples | Sustainability |
|---|---|---|
| Modeling | Better projection than market using same data | Sustainable if model is validated |
| Information | Injury news, role change, lineup information | Temporary (market will adjust) |
| Pricing/Promo | Profit boosts, odds enhancements | Temporary (promo-dependent) |
| Narrative | "He's due," "primetime player," "revenge game" | Not an edge |
Key Insight
Identify your edge source before betting. If you can't point to a specific advantage (better model, faster information, or promotional boost), you probably don't have one.
The Market Scorecard System
The Prop Quality Checklist feeds into a standardized scoring system. Each market is rated on four dimensions:
The Four Dimensions
| Dimension | Definition | Scale |
|---|---|---|
| (S)oftness | How often the market is meaningfully mispriced | Low / Medium / High |
| (T)ability | How repeatable/stable the outcome is game-to-game | Low / Medium / High |
| (M)odelability | How clearly you can estimate using common inputs | Low / Medium / High |
| (E)xecution | How practical to bet (hold, limits, line shopping) | Low / Medium / High |
The Tag System
Based on the STME scores, each prop type receives a tag:
| Tag | Meaning | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Core | Best combination of modelability, stability, execution | Your default hunting ground. Build expertise here first. |
| Situational | Can be profitable with specific edge triggers | Only bet when you can articulate a concrete reason. |
| Avoid (except) | Structural disadvantages outweigh typical edge | Entertainment only unless promotional boost or extreme mispricing. |
| Avoid | No realistic path to profitability | Never bet. Pure entertainment with negative expected value. |
Applying the Checklist: Walk-Through Example
Prop: Jalen Hurts Passing Yards Over/Under 245.5 (-115/-105)
1. Market Structure: ✅ Two-way market with reasonable pricing both sides
2. Liquidity: ✅ High liquidity (star QB, main stat)
3. Variance: ✅ Medium variance (yards accumulate, not event-based)
4. Driver Clarity: ✅ Clear drivers (pass attempts, completion rate, air yards, opponent pass D)
5. Edge Source: Need to identify
- Model edge? Compare your projection to 245.5
- Information edge? Check injury report, weather, game script indicators
- Pricing edge? Line shop—is -115 the best price?
Verdict: This is a Core market. Worth analyzing if you have a projection or information advantage.
Prop: Jalen Carter Anytime TD Scorer (Yes +550)
1. Market Structure: ⚠️ One-way market (no "No" option)
2. Liquidity: ⚠️ Low liquidity (defensive player TD)
3. Variance: ❌ Extreme variance (defensive TDs are rare events)
4. Driver Clarity: ❌ Unclear drivers (requires turnover + right position + return ability)
5. Edge Source:
- Model edge? Hard to model rare events
- Information edge? Would need specific scheme knowledge
- Pricing edge? Can't calculate true vig without "No" option
Verdict: This is an Avoid (except promos) market. The structural disadvantages are too severe unless a promotional boost dramatically improves expected value.
Building Your Filter System
Use the checklist to build a personal filter:
Pre-Session Routine
Before each betting session, ask yourself:
- Which sports am I focused on today? (Specialization > breadth)
- Which prop types am I hunting? (Core markets first)
- What's my edge source today? (Model, information, or promo?)
- What's my max bet count? (Avoid over-betting)
Quick Pass/Fail Checklist
For each prop you consider:
- [ ] Is this a Core or Situational market?
- [ ] Can I articulate my edge in one sentence?
- [ ] Have I checked multiple books for best price?
- [ ] Does my projection differ from implied probability by at least 3%?
If any answer is "no," pass on the bet.
Tip
Profitability in prop betting comes not from betting more props, but from betting better props. Selectivity is edge.
📝 Exercise
Instructions
Apply the Prop Quality Checklist to evaluate these market opportunities.
You're evaluating 'Patrick Mahomes Longest Completion Over/Under 35.5 yards (-110/-110)'. Using the checklist, what is the PRIMARY concern with this market?
Which edge source is MOST sustainable for long-term profitability?
A prop market is rated: Softness=High, Stability=Low, Modelability=Low, Execution=Medium. What is the most likely tag?