Exercise: Identifying Exploitable Situations

Put your knowledge to the test. For each scenario below, identify the type of edge and whether you would bet.

Instructions

Read each scenario carefully. For each one:

1. Identify which of the five exploitability factors is at play
2. Determine the direction of the edge (over or under)
3. Decide if you have enough information to bet

Scenario 1

An NBA team's starting center is ruled out. The backup center's rebounds prop is 5.5. The starter was averaging 10 rebounds, and the backup has averaged 4.5 in limited minutes but typically sees 18 minutes per game.

Questions:

• What type of edge is this? (Role change / Information asymmetry)
• Which direction? (Think about the backup getting starter minutes)
• Would you bet? (Consider: will the backup play 28+ minutes?)

Scenario 2

An MLB game has the under on a pitcher's strikeouts at 5.5. The opposing team ranks 28th in strikeout rate (they rarely strike out). The pitcher averages 6.2 K/game against average competition.

Questions:

• What type of edge is this? (Matchup / Specialization gap)
• Which direction? (Consider the opponent's contact tendencies)
• Would you bet? (Is the adjustment significant enough?)

Scenario 3

It's Sunday morning and a popular NFL QB's passing yards prop is 275.5. Social media is buzzing about his matchup against a weak secondary. The line opened at 260.5 yesterday.

Questions:

• What moved this line? (Recreational bias)
• Which direction might the edge be? (Consider: has the move been justified by data?)
• Would you bet? (Think about who is driving the line movement)

Scenario 4

A Thursday Night NFL game forecast calls for heavy rain starting in the 2nd quarter. A WR's receiving yards prop is 62.5, which is his season average.

Questions:

• What type of edge is this? (Weather / Context)
• Which direction? (Rain impacts passing volume)
• How would you size this bet? (High confidence or low confidence?)

Self-Assessment

For each scenario, rate your confidence (1-5) in:

• Correctly identifying the edge type
• Choosing the right direction
• Making a clear bet/no-bet decision

If you scored mostly 4s and 5s, you're ready to move on. If not, review the previous lessons before continuing.

Checklist

• [ ] Complete all four scenarios
• [ ] Identify the edge type in each case
• [ ] Determine bet direction for each
• [ ] Self-assess your confidence level